Posted Tuesday, 10-Sep-2002 23:54:06 PDT




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Year of economic uncertainty reviewed

This story appeared in the Antelope Valley Press September 11, 2002.

By ADAM GELLER
AP Business Writer

NEW YORK - A fast-moving economy doesn't stop for photographs.

But since terrorist attacks last September jolted an already unsteady economy, the consumers, investors, businesses and workers who populate it have scrambled to get a fix on the changes unleashed, large and small.

Not all the changes in the nation's economic life are the direct result of the tragedy. But random "snapshots" offer some insight into how the economic climate has changed - and how it hasn't.

The dropoff in demand for air tickets has pressured carriers to cut prices. The average price for a passenger sitting in coach on a 1,000-mile domestic flight was $100.32 in July, according to the Air Transport Association. The same fare a year earlier was $110.50.

At the Mojave Airport in California - which also serves as a large parking lot for planes - 296 wide-body and narrow-body jets are now idled, compared with about 50 on Sept. 10 of last year, general manager Stu Witt said.

Job prospects also have gotten tougher. The nation's unemployment rate stood at 4.9% in August 2001. It had risen to 5.7% a year later.

Some of the most severe job cuts have come in industries like aerospace, with a direct link to the attacks. In September, 2001, there were 93,000 employees at The Boeing Co.'s commercial airplanes division, the world's largest commercial jet manufacturer. A year later, the Renton, Wash.-based unit had 67,800 workers.

The past year has seen sharply higher bills for business owners shopping for insurance. Premiums were already rising, up about 10% to 15%, before last September's attacks. But worries of future attacks have made insurance even pricier.

Last year, a business with $1 million in annual revenues would've expected to pay about $5,550 for commercial insurance and related costs. But that has jumped about 30% to $7,220, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

The costs are significantly steeper for owners of landmark properties. The New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority found that out when the liability policy on its Meadowlands sports complex expired last September, and it went shopping for a new policy, and saw its annual premium rise from $700,000 to $2.4 million.

For consumers, though, the economic tremors of the past year have in some ways made life easier, as Federal Reserve policymakers cut interest rates.

A year ago, home buyers signing up for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage were locking in at an average interest rate of 6.89%, according to Freddie Mac, the mortgage company. As of last week, the average rate for the same loan was down to 6.15%, the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking three decades ago.

Car buyers have enjoyed a similar boon, with automakers offering 0% financing in the months after the attacks.

In August of last year, 48month loans for new cars from banks carried average interest rates of 8.31%, according to a Federal Reserve Bank survey. In September 2002, banks were offering the same loans with interest rates ranging from 6% to 7.5%, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.

Investors have endured a rollercoaster ride since last year.

On Sept. 10, 2001, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9605.51. It was at 8,602.61 on Wednesday - a 10% decline. The stock markets never opened on Sept. 11, and hit a post-attacks low of 7,702.34 on July 23.

Stock in WorldCom Inc., the telecommunications giant engulfed in a huge accounting scandal with no connection to the attacks, was trading at 13 cents Wednesday, down from $12.92 on Sept. 10, 2001.

Northrop Grumman Corp., the huge Los Angeles-based defense conglomerate, saw its stock rise 53% from Sept. 10, 2001, to Wednesday - from $81.94 per share to $125.25 a share.

AP Business Writer Alan Clendenning contributed to this story.


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