Weak al-Qaida could still pose threat to U.S.

The movement back into Afghanistan is still relatively small and is being conducted by al-Qaida members traveling in small groups, the officials say. Most of the thousands who escaped Afghanistan after U.S.-led forces defeated the Taliban government are not seeking to return.

Instead, they remain scattered throughout South Asia and the Middle East, creating a terrorist Diaspora that is now of deep concern to American counterterrorism officials. Some have found havens in Iran and Iraq, although American intelligence officials are divided over whether they are receiving active support from either country.

Still, American officials say the world's largest concentrations of al-Qaida operatives are now in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the recent influx into Afghanistan is creating new dangers. Al-Qaida members are believed to have launched a series of small attacks against American forces in Afghanistan in recent weeks and may have been behind the attempted assassination of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, and the deadly car bombing in Kabul last Thursday, according to Afghan and American officials.

While American military might smashed al-Qaida's training camps and terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan after last September's attacks on New York and Washington, officials throughout the U.S. government say that al-Qaida has quickly adapted. It is in the process of transforming itself into a more mobile, flexible and elusive force than ever before.

What most concerns American intelligence and law enforcement officials are the thousands of people who went through the Afghan training camps and are still at large. Most returned to their countries after training, but it is still unclear how many retain sympathy for or loyalty to al-Qaida, and how many have remained in contact with the terrorist group.

"Al-Qaida's real strength came from the personal relationships that developed among extremists who were together in the camps," one American official said. "My hope is that by losing Afghanistan, those relationships will eventually wear out."

Uploaded September 10, 2002