Summit says LAX expansion eminent

That message was delivered at the group's first-ever transportation summit, which organizers hope will become an annual event.

Addressing the nearly 40 summit attendees was Ron Bates, mayor of the Orange County city of Los Alamitos and past chairman of the Transportation Committee for the Southern California Association of Governments, also known as SCAG.

Federal law requires that organizations like SCAG exist so long-range plans can be made for using federal transportation funds.

SCAG includes Los Angeles County and five surrounding counties; Ventura, Orange, San Bernardino, Imperial and Riverside.

Part of SCAG's future view includes population projections through the year 2020. The study says there were 15.6 million people living in the big region in 1994, and there will be 22.4 million by 2020.

The number of jobs is also expected to blossom. In 1994, there were 6.6 million jobs in the multicounty region. By 2020, there could be up to 22.4 million.

But even with such growth projections, Palmdale Regional Airport isn't expected to play any role in the booms of population and economy.

SCAG's glimpse ahead shows Palmdate as paving a "proposed" airport some time between now and the year 2020.

It also lists low, medium and high estimates on annual passengers flying out of Palmdale by 2020.

The low and middle guesses say there may be up to 100,000 passengers per year, while the high estimate says there may be up to 200,000 passengers by the year 2020.

That estimate puts Palmdale in the company of other small or proposed airports in Imperial County, Oxnard, and the former George Air Force Base at Victorville.

While air freight is expected to jump from the 3 million tons flown in and out of the SCAG region in 1995 to 8.9 tons by 2015, little to none of it is expected to come to Palmdale. That's because most air freight is transferred in the bellies of regular passenger jets, and in SCAG's plan, Palmdale may not have an airport by then.

According to the latest SCAG report, updated in April, Los Angeles International Airport has about 80 million passengers per year now, and could have more than 100 million passengers by the year 2020.

"LAX is not going away," Bates said. "It will expand."

Bates said he supports expansion of LAX because whether it is improved or not, the passenger load will increase.

"If improvements aren't made, people will just have to wait in line longer," he said. "And instead of it taking one hour to get there, it will take two."

Bates said LAX will likely reach capacity at some future date, since it is hemmed-in by Playa del Rey and Westchester on the north, Lennox on the East, El Segundo on the south and the Pacific Ocean on the west.

"When that happens, we will look to areas where people aren't opposed to an airport for further expansion," he said. That's when places like Palmdale will get a major airport.

Opposition to the expansion of LAX has been voiced repeatedly by Los Angeles City Councilwoman Ruth Galanter, who represents residents near the airport.

Opposition to expansion of Burbank Airport, and to the creation of an El Toro Airport, has also been raised by residents concerned with noise.

Palmdale's hoped-for airport is included in SCAG's plan because if it's not in the master planning document, it can't get federal funding, Bates said. But projects not in the master document can be added later through amendments, he added.

Allen Wood, president of the Los Angeles County Board of Real Estate, said Wednesday's event was the first of its kind for the 20year-old organization, which represents real estate agents throughout the county.

"Based on the reactions of the attendees, I'd say it was extremely positive," he said.