Palmdale air service plan plummeting

Not in this lifetime, said one United Airlines official.

When commercial air service eventually returns to the now silent Palmdale Regional Airport, it will most likely be with the buzz of a turbo-prop commuter plane not the dull roar of a Boeing 737.

The revelation came clear during the second day of expert panel discussions on the future of Palmdale Regional Airport. Dick Mudge, a consultant with the Hagler Bailly firm in Virginia, led discussions both days.

Los Angeles World Airports, which oversees airport administration for the city of Los Angeles, hired Hagler Bailly to study what it will take to make Palmdale a viable alternative to Burbank, Ontario and possibly Los Angeles International airports.

Los Angeles bought 17,750 acres of raw desert east of Palmdale in 1966, planning to start construction on an airport to relieve pressure at Los Angeles International. The Palmdale land was never developed. Today, about 2,000 acres are leased to farmers who grow carrots, Christmas trees, sod and other crops.

Talks Monday and Tuesday at the Palmdale Ramada Inn were designed to collect comments from industry experts. The recommendations will be used in the final draft of the consultant's study, which is expected later this year.

The second day's talks were in sharp contrast to the first, when Mudge announced there could be up to 6.5 million passengers per year at Palmdale Regional Airport. Those figures were based on population forecasts and transportation improvements, and, he admitted, were a best-case scenario.

If air service were to return to Palmdale today, it would have to be subsidized, said Larry Clark of United Airlines.

United Express, a commuter shuttle that subcontracts with United Airlines, was the last carrier to offer passenger service from Palmdale. The last of its flights to Los Angeles International nosed west toward the Pacific in April of this year.

"If it changes in the future, there will be service," Clark said.

"I do not see connecting service coming out of Palmdale in my lifetime," he added.

Clark said the question of bringing service back to Palmdale is one of basic accounting.

"If we believed we could fly here and make money, we'd fly here and make money," Clark said. "If it were feasible, I could move 100 flights a day to Palmdale in three or four months."

But it isn't feasible right now, he said.

Southwest Airlines agrees.

"For Southwest, the numbers just aren't there today, especially since we serve Burbank, Ontario and Los Angeles International," said Leslie Carr, who manages property for the airline. "This area is very well served by Southwest Airlines."

Carr said 129 cities ask her airline to add service to their airports every year, but only one or two meet the company's criteria for a new destination.

There must be 3 million people living near the airport, and it has to be the most convenient airport for that population, she said.

With somewhere around 300,000 residents, and three airports within 90 minutes driving time, the Antelope Valley is far from the minimum requirements of Southwest. "We're already serving the airports in L.A. that make sense," she said.

With a population base of 3 million people, Southwest can start service with 12 to 15 flights per day.

"That's what needs to happen before we can come," Carr said with a smile.

Aaron Gellman, who attended Tuesday's meeting representing Northwest Airlines, said Palmdale is probably at the top of the list for start-up airlines.

"The charter market is substantial, I think," he said. "A smaller, no-name airline is the way to start it."

But, he cautioned, the state's environmental and tax laws are obstacles to development of the airport.

"Thousands of jobs left California when carpool restrictions were placed on big business," he said. "Many simply moved to Arizona. In our system, you can't stop people from making dumb decisions," he said of the carpool measure designed to reduce pollution from automobiles.

As it exists today, Palmdale Regional Airport sits on land owned by the federal government, within the boundaries of Air Force Plant 42. Through a joint operating agreement with the Air Force, the airport is permitted up to 50 flights a day.

Palmdale Airport as a cargo hub was also briefly discussed Tuesday, but soon dismissed because most cargo is carried in the bellies of regular passenger aircraft. Palmdale doesn't have passenger service yet.

Palmdale as a maintenance hub is a more likely scenario for future growth, said Lt. Col. Bob Catlin, commander of Air Force Plant 42.

"Boeing, Lockheed and Northrop are already at the site, and all have skilled workers," he said during the afternoon's discussion. The plant has vacant hangar space available right now, left over from the Boeing B-1 bomber program.

Joe Richardson, airport properties manager for United Parcel Service in Kentucky, seemed interested when he learned of the two empty Boeing hangars. He said they could be used for maintenance and repair of the UPS fleet.

Jack Driscoll, director of Los Angeles World Airports, said he's created a position on his staff to help promote all of the airports owned by the city of Los Angeles, which includes Palmdale, Los Angeles, Van Nuys and Ontario.

The position, called the deputy executive director for business development, should be filled in the next four to six weeks, Driscoll said.

Once that position is filled, Driscoll will assign one additional staff member to oversee the business development of each airport.

"I think Palmdale Airport will grow," Driscoll said. "I think it has potential, but it's going to take a lot of work and detailed analysis."