Consultant sees major airport role

The figure is supposed to sound sky-high, because it's the "maximum service scenario," said Dick Mudge, who led most of Monday's discussion. He works for the Virginia consulting firm of Hagler Bailly.

He was shy of releasing any future passenger figures at all, stressing they were as preliminary as they were optimistic.

His ardent view of a bright future is pinned on data from a report released earlier this year by the Southern California Association of Governments, which said Southern California's population will jump by 43%, or 22.35 million people, by the year 2020.

The outlook for northern Los Angeles County is even brighter, with the population expected to shoot up 169% by that same year.

If transportation improvements are in place in the Antelope Valley, and the Southern California population continues to blossom, Palmdale Regional Airport can't help but blossom, too, Mudge reasoned.

"You will end up with a pretty sizable airport out here," Mudge said. He expects something comparable to today's Ontario Airport.

Ruth Galanter, a member of the Los Angeles City Council who wants Los Angeles World Airports to consider expansion of Ontario and Palmdale before adding onto LAX, was also at the meeting.

"This is a very good start," she said after the first day. "A year ago I couldn't get anyone to pay attention to Palmdale."

Galanter said she can take partial credit for Los Angeles World Airports' hiring a consultant to study the Palmdale Airport land, and for the meetings taking place in Palmdale Monday and today.

"I was a real pest," she said, grinning gleefully.

She said she was pleased the consultant was asked what it would take to make the Palmdale Airport feasible. Had the consultant been asked if the Palmdale Airport is feasible at all may have garnered a brief, negative answer.

"I think even the consultant was surprised," she said. "It is feasible."

Another expert panel is gathered this morning at the Ramada Inn in Palmdale. While Monday's discussion focused on the facility and access to it, today's talks will zero in on bringing commercial air carriers back to Palmdale.

"There are going to be a lot of skeptics," Mudge said of today's meeting. When he tells representatives from airlines there will be millions of passengers in Palmdale, he anticipates some disbelief.

"New airports are a chickenand-egg issue," he said. "If we can show a valid case for a core ridership in Palmdale, we can make a case for the other issues."

Jack Driscoll, director of Los Angeles World Airports, said the city of Los Angeles has spent $100 million on the Palmdale Airport, and it's time to evaluate its value. The consultant's study was part of that effort.

Most of the data for the forward-looking study came from SCAG. Some data came from Kern County, Los Angeles World Airports, the High Speed Rail Commission, and various environmental studies.

Mudge shared results from a random phone survey, which showed the top four airports used by residents of the Antelope Valley region were Los Angeles International, Burbank, Ontario and John Wayne.

Galanter said she was surprised there was no supplementary survey focusing on the aerospace industry.

Expansion is not likely in the case of Burbank and John Wayne airports, Mudge said, because the airfields are landlocked.

Ontario, and especially Palmdale, have room to spread out, making them the likely growth areas for passenger service in the future, he said.

Even if no major improvements are made to freeways or rail access, passenger service at Palmdale Regional Airport will be 3.5 million by 2010 and 4.5 million by 2020, Mudge said.

But improvements will be made. Caltrans already has major plans for Highway 138, and eventually will widen the Antelope Valley Freeway from six lanes to eight.

A high-speed rail project planned to stretch from San Diego to San Francisco with a stop in the Antelope Valley could hurt Palmdale Regional Airport, Mudge said.

Just as easily as it would bring potential air passengers to Palmdale, it could take Antelope Valley residents to Los Angeles, and possibly to Los Angeles International Airport, if connecting services are developed.

Jerry Epstein, a member of the High Speed Rail Authority, didn't buy into the consultant's negative opinion on rail service.

"Palmdale service failed because people couldn't get here," he said. Epstein served on the Airport Commission when passenger service began in Palmdale.

Today, the Antelope Valley Freeway has car-pool lanes, making it easier to get here from the San Fernando Valley.

Rail would be just another step in the right direction, according to Epstein.

"We should learn from Europe," he said. "Anything under 400 miles, it doesn't pay to fly. They go by rail.

"It's just common sense you can't handle the traffic," he said. "Look at the 405 Freeway. We don't have any more room. Why can't we learn from what others have done?"

Increased development in Palmdale and Lancaster would boost demand for air services at a new airport, Mudge said. He recommended the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale reduce taxes, streamline the regulatory process and market the region, among other things, to make that happen.

"To get a truly large airport up here, you'll need to attract people from out of the area," he said.