Arrows point to small role for Palmdale airport

Palmdale was originally intended as an international airport in 1968 when planning began. But the concept was doomed by changing demographics and new ways of looking at air travel never envisioned when the 17,700 acres off of Avenue P were acquired, said Jack Driscoll, Los Angles World Airports director.

In an interview this week, Driscoll said he supported agreements to benefit both the Department of Airports and the Antelope Valley. He also said he supported a study on how to make Palmdale a viable airport as part of the LAX Master Plan.

Expectations must be realistic, however, he said.

"We want to carefully work through these issues. This is not a field of dreams. Air carriers fly to markets, not to airports," Driscoll said.

Dan Garcia, president of the Board of Airport Commissioners, stated in a Los Angeles publication that the lack of infrastructure, highways and population make Palmdale an unlikely choice for a major airport.

Palmdale Mayor Jim Ledford said Garcia is under the mistaken impression that Palmdale seeks to be an international airport. With help from the Department of Airports, Palmdale can develop its airport into a regional facility someday, Ledford said.

Palmdale's future

Even maintenance and cargo operations - believed by many Antelope Valley officials to be a way for Palmdale to participate in a regional air scheme - is unlikely to come about, Driscoll said.

Most of the main air carriers have consolidated their major maintenance in areas devoid of unions and rich in tax incentives, Driscoll said. What's left is not much and leaves little room for any kind of role for Palmdale.

Concerning cargo, Driscoll said 60% to 65% of cargo is coming to LAX in the belly of commercial planes and sent on trucks and planes to other destinations. Driscoll has promised cargo improvements in Palmdale that would range from $15 million to $20 million.

However, those improvements will wait until the LAX Master Plan and recently added Palmdale viability study are finalized about a year from now, he said.

The studies ought to show Palmdale off to some advantage, Ledford said.

"The study is something the opposition to LAX expansion compelled the Department of Airports to do. They had no factual basis for their lack of interest here," Ledford said. "I think a study will show the opportunities if they help position us to take advantage of them."

Palmdale's viability

From the airport department's point of view, for Palmdale to be viable, a San Gabriel Mountain Highway would be required, Garcia said. Such a project was abandoned long ago. And if high-speed rail materializes, it provides no more than a 25% increase in passengers to airports anywhere in North America, Garcia said.

"Thus Palmdale would require a high-speed rail and a new major highway before it became accessible to potential regional travelers, but neither of these two improvements will occur in the next 20 years, if ever," Garcia said.

However, Garcia is not unsympathetic to Antelope Valley officials looking to maximize the airport's potential.

"This is very understandable and LAWA will continue to look for ways to make Palmdale an airport of greater regional importance - but either a massive population explosion will need to occur and/or great surface-transportation improvements will have to be made before Palmdale becomes an airport of even secondary importance. We are studying the factors needed to make Palmdale commercially viable now," Garcia said.

DOA involvement
One way for the Department of Airports to realize some benefit from their Palmdale property and help the area to grow into a larger airport role is through agreements with Antelope Valley officials and industrial development.

"We are going to study how to deal with high-speed rail and (Highway) 138. We will look at how we can enhance our property and start businesses to attract aircraft. We will rely on that study," Driscoll said.

"We want to try to bring in business into Palmdale that could use our property for industrial development. If we do that we might see growth. We are working on creating a better working relationship. We want to see the land used for something other than just pistachios," the airports director said.

City officials hope for Department of Airports involvement, however tentative it might be.

"It's time for them to put their money where their mouth is. They need to help us help them to handle future growth," Ledford said.

Even replacing the Antelope Valley's sole commuter service is in doubt, Driscoll said. The only potential taker appears to be TransStates, and that hinges on other LAX issues such as gate space.

Department of Airports staff is working on deeding over land that could then be deeded to Palmdale for creation of a P-8 alignment, Driscoll said.

A P-8 alignment, with access from the Antelope Valley Freeway, could help the industry decide to locate near the airport, according to officials.

Along with some potential flood-control projects that could be shared between the Department of Airports and Palmdale, the alignment could help to create easier access and more opportunity for business and industrial development.

But development is slow and for hundreds of contacts asking for information on Palmdale, only one may result in a business coming to the Antelope Valley, Driscoll said.

Regional politics
The need for a regional air strategy is projected by estimates that in the next 20 years LAX will have 98 million passengers, but only 59% of the passengers in Los Angeles County. That's why Driscoll said there will never be another master plan when this one is complete.

Regional airports must take a larger role in easing air-traffic problems, but those solutions do not appear available today, Driscoll said.

Garcia agreed with the need for regional cooperation, but has said that partnership has been hard to develop as few cities want to expand air services and that reality has forced the major changes envisioned for LAX.

"The bottom line was and is that even if El Toro was built, Ontario expanded, Burbank expanded and miscellaneous regional airports grown (e.g. Palmdale), the region was still short of the aviation capacity it needed," Garcia said.

"At present progress at El Toro is at best slow, flights at John Wayne airport are capped, expansion at Burbank is absolutely stalled, and local politicians in Long Beach rejoice that it is limited to a handful of flights a day," he said.

Millions have been spent on promoting the master plan that has yet to be unveiled, Driscoll said.

"Our whole effort is to inform people. The opposition is saying put it there, put it here, put it somewhere else. I think it's nice to say put the demand where nobody lives. We need a regional answer, but we have to be practical," the airport director said.

Unrealized promise.
When property was purchased in Palmdale, flights consisted of 100 to 150 passengers on an aircraft. It was before the Boeing 747 and the capacity to move 400 passengers at a time, Driscoll said.

Technology, ability to move more people with fewer planes, demographics and the shape of airport facilities still are changing.

"All of a sudden we have surplus properties that didn't exist during the Vietnam War. El Toro, March, Norton were vital bases then, and it was thought they would always be there when the land in Palmdale was purchased. In the 1960s Ontario was not a Los Angeles Airport. Things changed. Promises made (based) on demographics didn't happen because things changed," Driscoll said.

Those projections would have capped LAX at about 40 million operations. Technology and the Olympics also changed the complexion of air travel.

Technology has enabled 60 million passengers to come to LAX with a combined 780,000 takeoffs and landings a year. To meet projections of 98 million passengers, an additional 220,000 operations are needed, Driscoll said.

"The dilemma is when we acquired the land, the demographics showed the growth from LAX would head north and south. Instead, growth has been more expansive to the east in San Bernardino County and Riverside County. Because of the mountain range, population was not as dramatic. Growth just didn't happen," Driscoll said.

Another explanation is the Department of Airports wants to centralize in Los Angeles and it is the driving force behind many of the decisions, Ledford said.